A north / south split in conditions

This warm weather will extend to parts of Northern Ireland, as well as parts of central and western England and Wales on Friday.

There’s very much a north/south divide in the weather, with unsettled conditions in the south but drier, warmer conditions in the north. There’s a marked east/west split too, with cool and cloudier conditions to the east of the UK, whilst the west experiences warm and sunny weather.

Met Office Chief Meteorologist Jason Kelly explained: “Repeated areas of rain are likely to affect southern Britain over the next few days, generating some localised impacts into the weekend. We currently have yellow weather warnings for rain in place, and it’s likely we will be issuing further warnings across the weekend.

“It’s a different story to the north of the UK though, as high pressure brings warmer and sunnier conditions, with higher-than-average temperatures, particularly across parts of western Scotland. Eastern areas are likely to be cooler and at times, cloudier due to winds blowing off the North Sea”

Weather warnings in the south

Yellow National Severe Weather Warnings are currently in place until Friday evening across the southwest of the UK, where outbreaks of heavy rain are expected widely.

Jason Kelly said: “The rain will be persistent for some and may be particularly heavy in a few places. Rainfall totals of 15-30mm are expected widely, however, the wettest areas are likely to see 40-60mm through the whole of Friday, with a lower likelihood of a few areas seeing as much as 75-100mm.

“In addition, rain may well be accompanied by thunderstorms across the southwest during the early hours of Friday morning and during the afternoon and evening, across the southeast.”

A different story in the north

Elsewhere, areas in the north/northwest of the UK will enjoy fine and warm, or even very warm conditions for a time. The northeast, however, is likely to see low cloud sea fog and drizzle. Parts of western Scotland could see highs of 26°C, or possibly 27°C on Friday.

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Brent Walker explained: “Areas in western Scotland could see maximum temperatures of 26°C on Friday. If the wind were to shift a little, 27°C could even be on the cards for some places in the west as they pick up the foehn effect, which causes warming and drying of air on the lee side of high ground.”

Learn more about the foehn effect.

Western Scotland in particular, experienced a cool and wet summer, with 25% more rainfall than average and temperatures 0.48C below the long-term meteorological average.

The impact of the jet stream

When looking at the underlying patterns behind the UK’s weather, the jet stream, which is a ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere, plays a prominent role.

Meteorologist Aidan McGivern explains its part in the unsettled weather in the south over the next few days in our 10-day trend video.

“The jet stream, at the moment, is extending south across the UK. It’s currently a very elongated setup and when it is elongated this much, it can cut off from the main flow into an entirely separate circulation. This is known as a ‘cut off low’.

“You get an upper low and a surface low, just cut off from the main flow, just meandering erratically around, separate from the main flow and therefore, getting stuck somewhere. At the beginning of the week, we didn’t know where it was going to get stuck, but it looks very much now like it’s going to be to the south of the UK over the next few days, bringing heavy spells rain.”   

Further ahead

Looking further ahead, and we’re likely to see fresher, cooler temperatures to the UK from Tuesday. Conditions look to remain generally unsettled during next week, with showers or longer spells of rain at times for all regions.

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